Airbus has trimmed its long-term outlook for global passenger jet demand, citing geopolitical conflict and escalating trade tensions as headwinds knocking aviation's post-pandemic recovery off course. In its latest 20-year Global Market Forecast, published on July 8, 2026, the planemaker said the world will need 42,060 new passenger aircraft between 2026 and 2045.
That figure is 390 aircraft lower than last year's forecast β a cut of about 1%. Airbus pointed to the war involving Iran and rising tariffs and trade frictions as the twin factors weighing on the projection.
The reduction was applied across both major categories. Single-aisle aircraft, the workhorses of short- and medium-haul flying, account for 33,920 of the projected deliveries, while widebodies make up the remaining 8,140. Each category fell by roughly 1% relative to the prior forecast.
A notable shift lies in the balance between growth and replacement. Of the 42,060 aircraft, Airbus expects 19,820 to replace older, less efficient jets, while 22,240 will support fleet growth. Replacement demand now represents about 47% of all deliveries, up from 45% in the previous forecast, as airlines retire aging aircraft faster than they add new capacity β a trend that also supports the industry's fuel-efficiency and emissions goals.
Geographically, Asia remains the engine of long-term demand. Airbus expects the region to lead orders for new passenger aircraft through 2045, with China requiring the most jets of any single country. Domestic travel within China is projected to account for the largest single traffic flow, followed by domestic markets in the United States and India.
Twenty-year forecasts from Airbus and rival Boeing are closely watched as barometers of where the industry believes demand is heading. While a 1% trim is modest in the context of a two-decade horizon, it signals that manufacturers are factoring in a more uncertain geopolitical and trade environment than they were a year ago.
Sources: AeroTime, Airways Magazine. Featured image: AI-generated by AviationShop. By Marco Bianchi.
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